Morning Briefing — June 29, 2026

World News

US and Iran agree to halt attacks, plan Doha talks on Strait of Hormuz — The United States and Iran have agreed to pause reciprocal attacks and allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with technical talks slated to continue in Doha on Tuesday. A senior US official said both sides will 'stand down for now' and that vessels can move freely, while disputes remain over the strategic waterway. RFE/RL

Iran warns against new arrangements in Strait of Hormuz as Qatar mediates — Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned in Baghdad that any attempt to adopt separate arrangements regarding control of the Strait of Hormuz will only increase tensions. Qatar is mediating between Washington and Tehran with talks moved from Switzerland to Doha after weekend strikes. Times of Israel

Venezuela earthquake death toll passes 1,430 with millions affected — Venezuelan authorities have confirmed the deaths of at least 1,430 people in Wednesday's twin earthquakes, with the UN estimating that close to 7 million people have been affected and 6% of GDP impacted by physical damage. International rescue teams continue searching in worst-hit La Guaira. BBC

France reports 1,000 excess deaths as European heatwave breaks records — France's public health agency reported about 1,000 excess deaths during the past week's intense heatwave, with most fatalities involving older people. Temperature records were broken across Europe over the weekend and the WHO warned that Europe is now the fastest-warming continent. Al Jazeera

Germany sets third consecutive record as heat dome shifts east — Germany marked a new record for the third day in a row at 41.7°C in Neißemünde, while the Czech Republic experienced its hottest day ever at 41.1°C. Wildfires erupted in forests still contaminated with World War II ammunition, complicating firefighting efforts. PBS NewsHour

Three firefighters killed battling wildfires on Colorado-Utah border — Three firefighters were killed and two others injured while fighting the Knowles and Gore fires near the Colorado-Utah border. The US Wildland Fire Service said the firefighters were part of an interagency response amid high winds and heat fueling out-of-control wildfires. CBS News

Canada beats South Africa to advance in World Cup knockout stage — Canada advanced to the next stage of the FIFA World Cup after defeating South Africa 1-0 in Los Angeles on Sunday. The win kicked off the knockout stage of the tournament being co-hosted in North America. CTV News

Business

Markets brace for jobs data and Nike earnings in holiday-shortened week — US stock futures rose Monday morning with S&P futures up 0.79% as roller-coaster markets face crucial labor data in a holiday-shortened week. Nike earnings and the AI trade remain in focus as investors digest a volatile week shaped by the Iran conflict. Yahoo Finance

BIS warns of AI bust risk and ripple effects on growth and credit — The Bank for International Settlements warned that an AI bust could ripple through the broader economy, affecting growth and credit markets. The concerns come amid renewed tech equity sales and worries about AI debt-fuelled investment binges. Bloomberg

AI boom mints 19 new billionaires as CalPERS launches $600 billion experiment — Bloomberg reports that the relentless AI boom has minted 19 new billionaires, while CalPERS investment chief Stephen Gilmore is launching a $600 billion 'total portfolio' investing experiment that breaks down walls between asset classes at the biggest US pension fund. Bloomberg

Europe seeks alternatives to Visa and Mastercard amid sovereignty concerns — European nations are pushing to loosen America's grip on payment systems, fueled by concerns over economic sovereignty. The search for alternatives to Visa and Mastercard reflects broader European unease about dependence on US financial infrastructure. Bloomberg

Cobalt, Ontario tapped to host North America's first battery-grade refinery — A facility near Cobalt, Ontario, has been selected to host North America's first battery-grade cobalt refinery, projected to be fully operational by late 2027. Experts say the plant could help Canada enter an industry currently dominated by China. CBC

BC Premier David Eby heads to China to diversify trade relationships — British Columbia Premier David Eby flew to China seeking to diversify trade relationships amid ongoing tariff tensions. The trip is part of a broader Canadian effort to find new markets as the country navigates economic pressures. BNN Bloomberg

FAO warns Hormuz disruption is sending fertilizer prices soaring — The World Bank reports that disruptions to oil, gas and fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz drove a 46% month-on-month rise in urea prices and pushed agricultural price indices up 8%, raising the risk of an affordability crisis. Up to 67 million people in East and Southern Africa now need food assistance. World Bank/FAO

Technology

Google caps Meta's Gemini AI access amid severe compute shortage — Google has placed limits on Meta's use of its Gemini AI models because it could not provide as much computing capacity as Meta wanted, the Financial Times reported. The move has had knock-on effects on Meta's internal projects, with the company telling staff to make more efficient use of AI tokens. Bloomberg / FT

Google pays SpaceX $920 million a month for 'bridge capacity' on Nvidia GPUs — Despite spending over $180 billion on capex this year, Google is so compute-constrained that it agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million a month for access to 110,000 Nvidia GPUs as 'bridge capacity' to meet Gemini Enterprise demand. Anthropic is renting an entire data centre from SpaceX as the AI compute shortage reshapes industry relationships. TheNextWeb

Meta shifts content moderation to internal Muse Spark model — Meta has been shifting AI workloads from Gemini to its own internal Muse Spark model, launched under its Superintelligence Labs division, to reduce external dependence. The company cut 8,000 jobs in May and redirected capex guidance of $115–$135 billion toward AI infrastructure for 2026. TheNextWeb

Europe's Hunt for AI Stocks Leads to Power Suppliers and Banks — European investors searching for AI exposure are increasingly turning to power suppliers and banks rather than chipmakers, reflecting how the AI energy crunch is reshaping market opportunities. Investors are also searching for the next IPO winners in AI energy infrastructure. Bloomberg

Thomson Reuters warns $143 billion at risk if firms fail to deliver AI — A new Thomson Reuters Future of Professionals report based on a survey of 1,800 professionals warns of $143 billion in US client revenue at risk as firms fall behind on AI implementation. The report finds 24% of talent at risk of leaving within two years if their firms fail to deliver on AI. Thomson Reuters

Soaring iPad and Xbox prices reveal pain of memory chip mess — Bloomberg reports that surging prices for consumer electronics including iPads and Xboxes are revealing the depth of the memory chip supply crisis. The shortage is being amplified by AI infrastructure demand consuming memory chip capacity. Bloomberg

Samsung and SK Hynix prepare record spending to sustain Korea's AI lead — Samsung and SK Hynix are preparing record capital spending to sustain South Korea's lead in AI memory. The investments come as China and India see top firms lose market cap share amid the AI lag, while Korean payouts have raised questions over how to share the AI windfall. Bloomberg

Renewable Energy

China's 15th five-year plan targets 30% clean energy by 2030 — China released its 15th five-year plan for a 'new-type energy system,' aiming for clean energy to constitute 30% of power generation by 2030, up from approximately 22% today. The plan states that wind and solar will become the 'mainstay' of China's power mix, with new binding targets for low-carbon power consumption. Carbon Brief

UN chief urges AI firms to 'come clean' on data centre footprint — UN Secretary-General Guterres called on AI firms to publicly disclose the full carbon, water and land footprints of data centres, and to commit to powering them with renewables by 2030. He noted that AI data centres already consume more electricity than most nations and could use water equivalent to the basic needs of all 1.3 billion sub-Saharan Africans by 2030. UN News

China's CO2 climbs 2% in early 2026 due to 'wasted' wind and solar — China's CO2 emissions grew by 2% in Q1 2026 as the country burned more coal and gas to generate electricity despite a record amount of new wind and solar capacity. Clean power equivalent to more than France's entire quarterly electricity output was discarded due to grid inflexibility and curtailment. Carbon Brief

France launches 10 GW offshore wind tender on west coast — France's energy ministry announced it will open a long-awaited call for tenders to develop ten gigawatts of offshore wind projects, mostly located on the country's west coast. The move is part of broader European efforts to expand renewable capacity amid energy security concerns. Clean Energy Wire

UK solar market on track for record year of 5–5.5 GWp additions — The UK solar market is forecast to add 5–5.5 GWp of capacity in 2026, marking a second consecutive year of 50% growth and the best year on record. The UK has surpassed two million MCS-certified solar installations, putting the industry on pace to meet the Clean Power 2030 target of 45–47 GW. Grid Guru

UK price cap to jump 13.5% in July, driven by Middle East conflict — From 1 July 2026, Ofgem's UK energy price cap will rise 13.5% to £1,862 per year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by direct debit, an extra £221 a year, driven by wholesale gas market volatility linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Installers say it creates the most compelling solar and storage sales environment in years. Grid Guru

Airline chiefs say 2050 net zero goal now unlikely — IATA boss Willie Walsh said the aviation industry's 2050 net zero goal is now unlikely, blaming fuel suppliers, governments and aircraft makers, and called for a new 'realistic timeline.' The admission marks a significant setback for one of the hardest-to-abate sectors. Guardian via Clean Energy Wire

Soil Science

Sterilized soil keeps releasing CO2 for six years, hinting at metabolism's origins — French biochemist Sébastien Fontaine reports that gamma-radiation-sterilized soil samples continued consuming oxygen and emitting CO2 for six years, suggesting metabolic processes can occur outside living cells. The findings hint that biochemical reactions powering life could even predate life on Earth, though some scientists argue residual enzymes may explain the activity. Quanta Magazine

Biochar emerges as promising remediation for microplastic-contaminated soils — A new review in the Soil Science Society of America Journal evaluates biochar as a sustainable strategy for remediating microplastic-contaminated soils, noting its efficacy depends on physicochemical properties such as surface area, porosity, and soil texture. The authors flag knowledge gaps around microscopic interactions and field-scale application. Soil Science Society of America Journal

SWIM2 digital twin uses sensors and Bayesian modeling for irrigation decisions — Belgian researchers introduced SWIM2 (Sensor Wielded Inverse Modeling of a Soil Water Irrigation Model), a digital twin integrating continuous sensor data with an FAO-based soil water balance model using Bayesian inverse modeling. The system achieved robust 7-day soil moisture predictions across 18 vegetable cropping cycles in Flanders. ISMC

FAO warns Hormuz disruption could slash fertilizer-intensive crop yields — FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero warned that disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz are translating into a dual cost shock for farmers, with Middle East granular urea up 19% and Egyptian urea up 28% in early March. FAO projects global fertilizer prices could average 15–20% higher in the first half of 2026, with reduced yields likely for wheat, rice and maize. FAO

FAO–WFP early warnings name 13 'hunger hotspots' through November — The latest FAO–WFP Hunger Hotspots report warns that acute food insecurity is expected to worsen for millions of people across 13 countries between June and November 2026. The outlook reflects intensifying conflict and climate shocks. WFP

FAO 2026 appeal seeks $2.5 billion for 100 million people in 54 countries — FAO's first Global Emergency and Resilience Appeal seeks $2.5 billion to assist over 100 million people in 54 countries in 2026, calling for rebalancing humanitarian response toward agricultural solutions. FAO notes that each dollar invested in a farmer's field produces about $3 in local food value, yet only 5% of relevant funding supports food production. FAO

Conservation tillage significantly improves soil health over conventional methods — A study published in the Soil Science Society of America Journal found that soil health properties were significantly improved by conservation tillage compared to conventional tillage. Strip till provides localized benefits on maize rows while preserving no-till conditions between rows, helping inform sustainable agriculture trade-offs. Soil Science Society of America Journal

Lebanon: Hormuz disruptions worsen acute food insecurity — FAO's GIEWS issued a June 18 update warning that conflict escalation combined with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are deepening acute food insecurity in Lebanon. The report adds to mounting concerns about how Middle East maritime disruption is rippling through food systems. FAO GIEWS

Cover photo by Ozan Safak on Unsplash.