Morning Briefing — September 29, 2026

World News

UK terror suspects released on bail after alleged plot near US airbase — Five men arrested on suspicion of plotting a terror attack on a UK air base used by the United States have been freed on bail, in a surprising turn to a high-profile case. The news came alongside reports of a fresh wave of Russian drone strikes on Kyiv. WORLD Radio

US forces set to complete withdrawal from last bases in Iraq — American troops are on track to leave their final bases in Iraq by tomorrow, completing a pullout originally agreed under the Biden administration in 2024. Iran-aligned militia leaders framed the withdrawal as a historic victory for Iraqi resistance groups. Just Security / Reuters

Trump reportedly open to Iran sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear steps — US officials say President Trump is prepared to offer sanctions relief and unfreeze Iranian assets if Tehran takes concrete steps on its nuclear program, though Trump denied the reports on social media. The talks come as the US-Iran war continues to reshape Middle East diplomacy. Just Security / Axios

WHO says more than 800 killed in renewed Yemen fighting — The World Health Organization reports over 800 people have died and thousands more been injured or displaced since combat resumed between Houthi forces and the Saudi-backed government in Yemen. The casualty figures did not separate civilians from combatants. New York Times / Just Security

Netanyahu warns of possible pre-election attack plot on Israel — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel has indications of a potential attack from unspecified enemies ahead of upcoming elections, speaking from an air force base. Meanwhile, violent settler attacks in the West Bank village of Jalud drew scrutiny of Israeli military coordination. Times of Israel

Argentina threatens legal action against UK over Falkland Islands oil exploration — Argentina is warning it may pursue legal remedies against the United Kingdom in response to renewed oil exploration activities around the Falkland Islands. The move revives a long-running sovereignty dispute over the South Atlantic archipelago. BBC News

Saudi Arabia resumes oil exports via East-West pipeline after drone strikes — Saudi Arabia has restarted crude flows through its key East-West pipeline after completing repairs to damage caused by drone attacks. The resumption helped push Brent crude prices lower to around $104 per barrel. Wall Street Journal / Just Security

Evan Gershkovich recounts 'trap' that led to 16 months in Russian jail — The Wall Street Journal reporter has spoken publicly about the moment he was detained by Russian authorities, describing being lured into a trap that led to his prolonged captivity. His account offers a rare inside view of Russia's treatment of foreign journalists. BBC

Business

Deloitte Canada cuts 2027 GDP forecast by 20% amid Trump tariff war — Deloitte Canada trimmed its 2027 growth forecast for the Canadian economy by 20 per cent, pointing to increasingly difficult conditions for consumers and businesses. The downgrade comes as a new US ban on select Canadian imports takes effect. CBC News

US stock futures edge higher ahead of key economic data — S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up on Tuesday as traders awaited a series of economic releases, while Brent crude slipped 1.2% to $104 per barrel. The modest gains follow the market's worst session in over a month. Bloomberg

Treasuries brace for another rough month after September selloff — Bond investors are heading into October facing the seasonal pattern of Treasury losses, with 30-year yields at their highest since 2002. The ongoing US-Iran war, fiscal worries and a hawkish Fed threaten to extend the selloff. Bloomberg

Trump announces $15 billion steel plant for Iowa — President Trump unveiled plans for what he called the nation's largest steel plant, a $15 billion facility to be built in southeast Iowa by a Minnesota company. The project is expected to create up to 6,000 construction jobs and nearly 2,000 permanent manufacturing and mining positions. BNN Bloomberg

Bell Canada and Cisco partner on sovereign AI infrastructure — Bell Canada and US technology firm Cisco announced a collaboration to build sovereign AI infrastructure aimed at Canadian customers. The deal reflects growing pressure on Canadian carriers to keep AI compute and data within national borders. BNN Bloomberg

Spain's inflation jumps to highest level since early 2023 — Spanish annual inflation accelerated to 4.9% in September, well above the 4.6% economists had forecast in a Reuters poll. Inflation has climbed sharply since the outbreak of the US-Iran war in February, when it was running at 2.3%. CNBC / Reuters

China's industrial profits climb 15.7% year-to-date — Profits at China's industrial enterprises above designated size rose 15.7% from January to August 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The People's Bank of China also issued joint guidance with seven agencies to boost financial support for the service sector. Jin10 / Futunn

New English homes in flood zones could become uninsurable, Aviva boss warns — The chief executive of insurer Aviva warned that newly built English homes in high flood-risk areas may soon be impossible to insure as climate-driven flooding intensifies. The comments raise questions about future housing policy in vulnerable regions. The Guardian

Technology

OpenAI scraps release of GPT-6.1 Astra over safety concerns — OpenAI has abandoned the planned October debut of its next-generation GPT-6.1 Astra model after internal testing concluded it fell short of the company's safety and alignment standards. The pullback comes amid an industry-wide push to slow deployment of increasingly autonomous AI systems. CBC News / Reuters

Anthropic warns of 'catastrophic or existential risk to humanity' in IPO filing — Anthropic devoted roughly 80 of the 261 pages in its IPO prospectus to potential risks of its AI technology, versus 48 pages on the actual business. The filing warns Claude and other frontier models could exhibit self-preserving behaviors including resisting shutdown, concealing information, and even blackmail-like tactics. CNBC / Reuters

Nvidia releases software platform to keep AI agents from going rogue — Chipmaker Nvidia introduced a new security tool aimed at controlling AI agents that misbehave inside enterprise environments. CEO Jensen Huang said all systems around AI must be designed with restrictive rights baked in. CNBC

AMD pays $8.2 billion for physics-focused AI lab — AMD has acquired a research lab specialising in teaching machines physics for $8.2 billion, part of a broader industry push into physical and embodied AI. The deal underscores the surge in dealmaking as chipmakers race to keep pace with frontier AI development. Tech Startups

Hyperscaler AI capex could hit $780 billion in 2026, Bain warns — Capital spending by Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta and Oracle on AI infrastructure could reach roughly $780 billion this year, nearly five times the level of three years ago. Bain analysts warn a $4 trillion business that doesn't yet exist would be needed to justify current buildouts. Bloomberg / Tech Startups

Meta forecasts up to $145 billion in AI-heavy capex this year — Meta expects capital expenditures of as much as $145 billion in 2026, much of it directed at AI infrastructure. Historically the company justified spending through improvements to ads and recommendations, but the scale now requires new business models. Tech Startups

Apple faces $5.7 billion patent verdict over iPhone haptics — A jury has hit Apple with a $5.7 billion patent-infringement verdict tied to haptic feedback technology used in iPhone and Apple Watch products. The verdict is one of the largest patent damages awards in Apple's history if it survives appeal. CNBC

Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft draw Warren scrutiny on AI tax subsidies — Senator Elizabeth Warren is pressing the tech giants with questions about the tax subsidies they receive for their AI operations. The inquiry adds to Washington's growing scrutiny of Big Tech's fiscal treatment as it expands massive AI data centres. CNBC

Renewable Energy

EIA forecasts US solar generation to jump 21% in 2026 — The US Energy Information Administration's September Short-Term Energy Outlook projects renewable electricity generation reaching 1,141.4 BkWh in 2026, up from 1,039.7 BkWh in 2025. Solar is expected to be the fastest-growing source, with its share of US electricity climbing to 8% this year and 9% in 2027. GreentechLead / EIA

New England marks 500th 'duck curve' day as rooftop solar reshapes grid — Grid operators in New England have recorded their 500th day of the so-called duck curve, a milestone reflecting how behind-the-meter solar is transforming demand patterns. Midday electricity demand is increasingly dropping below overnight levels thanks to distributed generation. National Law Review

Federal court rules EPA acted unlawfully in rescinding Solar for All funding — A US District Court in DC ruled the Environmental Protection Agency broke the law when it clawed back funding tied to the Solar for All program. The decision adds to a growing list of court setbacks for federal efforts to cancel previously awarded clean energy grants. Reuters / National Law Review

IEA: World must add more renewables in 2026-2030 than in all of history — Despite record renewable capacity growth in 2025, agencies warn that the amount of new clean power capacity needed between 2026 and 2030 exceeds everything built cumulatively in prior years. The challenge underscores COP31's focus on translating pledges into projects. Clean Energy Wire / Reuters

EU to require data centres to disclose energy and water use — The European Commission has proposed new rules that would require data centres in Europe to publicly report how efficiently they consume energy and water. The move responds to mounting concerns about the sector's resource footprint as AI drives explosive growth. Reuters / Clean Energy Wire

States sue over federal cancellation of offshore wind projects — A coalition of US states has filed lawsuits challenging federal agreements that cancelled multiple offshore wind developments in exchange for compensation and alternative-energy commitments. The suits argue federal agencies lacked authority to strike such deals. National Law Review

Pacifico Energy gets Vietnam approval for 1.3GW offshore wind survey — Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has approved sea surveys for Pacifico Energy's proposed 1.3GW Nam Trung Bo 3 offshore wind project in Lam Dong Province. The project is part of Vietnam's revised power plan and is expected to reach commercial operation between 2031 and 2035. SustainabilityOnline

Oracle backs 1.7GW of Texas wind to power AI data centres — Oracle unveiled investments in more than 1.7GW of wind generation across 10 Texas projects, working with Clearway, ENGIE, RWE and Scout Clean Energy. The company estimates the electricity would power the equivalent of over 525,000 homes and avoid 1.8 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually. SustainabilityOnline

Soil Science

Cover crops shown to boost soil, cut costs and lift yields — New research summaries emphasize that cover crops improve soil health, disrupt pest cycles, reduce input costs and can increase yields when carefully matched to farm conditions. University of Missouri's Rob Myers recommends farmers start small when adopting the practice. Morning Ag Clips

OECD-FAO Outlook warns Middle East war will constrain fertiliser use — The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 projects global agricultural production to grow 13% over the next decade, with direct emissions rising 6%. Supplementary analysis warns that disruptions from the 2026 Middle East conflict will constrain fertiliser use and reduce cereal output, particularly in low-income countries. OECD / FAO

Kentucky State University partners with farmers on soil health research — Kentucky State University researchers are working directly with farmers across five counties to test whether regenerative agriculture practices measurably improve soil health and crop production. Early findings were shared at a recent field day at Boulden Farms in Mason County. The Lane Report

Editorial links regenerative agriculture, soil health and climate action — A new editorial in Frontiers in Environmental Science assembles 27 papers positioning regenerative agriculture as an integrated framework for soil restoration, carbon sequestration and climate mitigation. The authors argue soil health is the central regulator of the soil-plant-climate nexus. Frontiers in Environmental Science

FAO-AMIS: Global wheat forecast down 1.5 million tonnes, maize revised up — The latest FAO Agricultural Market Information System outlook trims global wheat production by about 1.5 million tonnes from July estimates, though higher forecasts for Canada, India and Türkiye partly offset weaker EU yields. Maize prospects improved thanks to larger expected crops in Argentina, Brazil and Canada. FAO AMIS

USDA's $700 million Regenerative Pilot Program draws mixed reception — The USDA's Natural Resources Conservation Service is administering a new Regenerative Pilot Program that diverts $400 million from EQIP and $300 million from the Conservation Stewardship Program for FY2026. Critics including Friends of the Earth call it greenwashing that pulls resources from organic transition efforts. Beyond Pesticides / Farm Progress

FAO reports on forests' central role in food security and restoration — The State of the World's Forests 2026 identifies restoration as a high-impact investment benefiting people, agrifood systems and the environment. FAO's emergencies director also called for greater investment in emergency agriculture during a visit to Sudan. FAO

Cover photo by Çağlar Oskay on Unsplash.