Morning Briefing — October 25, 2026

Morning Briefing — October 25, 2026

World News

Brazilians vote in presidential runoff pitting Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro — Brazil heads to the polls on Sunday, 25 October, for a runoff between incumbent President Lula of the Workers' Party and conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party. Flávio led the first round on 4 October with 47.03% to Lula's 45.16%, and prediction markets heading into the vote favour the Bolsonaro camp. Rio Times

French protest groups demand more rallies as Macron faces tough choices — French unions and the Yellow Vests called for fresh demonstrations on 31 October and a general strike on 5 November after 410,000 people marched on Saturday against school funding and the cost of living. With public finances strained, Macron has little room to respond compared with his 2019 concessions to the original Yellow Vest movement. Reuters

Over 400,000 march across France in serious challenge to Macron — Clashes broke out in Paris as nationwide protests over school funding and rising living costs drew more than 400,000 people and led to nearly 1,000 arrests. Police used tear gas in Lyon, Clermont-Ferrand, Strasbourg and Bordeaux, and water cannons in Nice and Nantes, as street fires burned in Marseille and Lyon. AP via Daily Sabah

Musk says he was behind Starlink speed restriction in Ukraine — Elon Musk confirmed on Saturday that SpaceX throttled Starlink service in Ukraine, saying Kyiv had violated terms of service by using it for offensive drone strikes. Ukraine's defense ministry said full connectivity has now been restored to equipment moving above 400 km/h after a two-week disruption that hampered drone operations. CBS News

Obama mocks Trump for hitting Canada with tariffs — Former U.S. president Barack Obama criticized the Trump administration's tariff regime on Saturday, highlighting the absurdity of a trade war with Canada and calling Canadians "the nicest people." The remarks come as the latest tranche of U.S. tariffs continues to weigh on Canadian exporters. CBC News

Alberta votes to remain in Canada, rejecting separation referendum — Albertans voted decisively to stay in Canada, rejecting a proposal to begin a separation process. Business leaders greeted the result as a relief, saying it brings certainty for investors and strengthens the broader Canadian economy. CBC News

France and Britain test NATO readiness with major airborne exercise in Germany — French and British forces are staging a large joint airborne exercise in Germany to test NATO readiness amid continued tensions with Russia. The drill is part of a broader push by European members to show deterrence capacity as the Ukraine war grinds on. Guardian via inkl

Business

Stocks fall as oil rally keeps a lid on Treasuries — A resurgence in oil prices dragged stocks and bonds lower, stoking inflation fears ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision. Brent crude settled near $117 as a flare-up in Middle East violence threatened supplies, while the Dow slipped 1.2% and chipmakers posted their longest weekly drop since November. Bloomberg

Stocks fall as AI jitters ease bets on Fed hikes — Wall Street fled riskier assets as a technology rout and Middle East hostilities drove investors to bonds, reducing bets on another 2026 Fed hike. A nearly 7% plunge in chipmakers sent the Nasdaq 100 to its worst day since June after Meta's plans to boost capital spending reignited fears about AI-related debt. Bloomberg

Bank of Canada increasingly expected to raise interest rates this month — Traders in the overnight swap market now put the odds of a 25-basis-point hike from the Bank of Canada on Oct. 28 at 87%, up from 70% a week earlier. BMO, RBC Dominion Securities and Desjardins have all flipped their calls from a hold to a hike as fuel-driven inflation and business price expectations climb. CBC News

Inflation rises to 3.1% in September as gas prices push higher — Canadian inflation accelerated in September on higher fuel prices, with Governor Tiff Macklem warning that sustained oil around $100 could lift headline inflation further. The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey shows firms now expect inflation to average 3.7% over the coming year. CBC News

Carney, Ford announce $8.7B partnership to support steel, auto and critical mineral sectors — The federal government and Ontario unveiled an $8.7-billion partnership to shore up steel, auto and critical-mineral industries hit by U.S. tariffs. The package is intended to safeguard jobs and investment amid continuing trade uncertainty. CBC News

AT&T slumps 10.7% on report SpaceX seeks access to 80,000 US cell sites — AT&T shares tumbled 10.7% last week on a Bloomberg report that SpaceX is negotiating access to at least 80,000 U.S. cell sites for its Starlink Mobile service. The move would mark a major escalation of Starlink's direct-to-cell ambitions and a new competitive threat to U.S. carriers. Atranica Capital / Bloomberg

Blackstone closes $8.7bn energy-transition fund — Blackstone has closed its fifth Energy Transition Partners fund at $8.7 billion, more than 50% larger than its predecessor and at its hard cap. Investments include U.S. power producer Kindle Energy, Spanish Fisterra and transmission utility Viridon, alongside firms in energy efficiency and data-centre cooling. SustainabilityOnline

Technology

Meta ordered to pay $25 billion in New Mexico Cambridge Analytica case — A New Mexico judge imposed a $25 billion penalty on Meta after a jury found the company had misled users about privacy practices tied to the Cambridge Analytica scandal. Judge Francis Mathew described a "coherent strategy designed to mislead the public" and found over 43 million violations of state consumer-protection law; Meta plans to appeal. CNN

Anthropic warns small AI models could self-replicate on home devices within months — Anthropic's frontier red team said small AI models "may be months away" from being capable of self-replicating on IoT devices such as smart TVs, fridges and lawnmowers. The researchers warned such distributed AI worms would be hard to shut down due to the lack of a centralised host. Al Jazeera

Study finds Grok picks Republicans 92%, GPT-6.1 picks Democrats 97% in forced-choice test — A Convovo study led by Cornell professor Tapan Parikh forced xAI's Grok 4.7 and OpenAI's GPT-6.1 Sol to pick a single candidate in nearly 500 U.S. midterm races. Grok chose the Republican in 92% of responses and GPT chose the Democrat in 97%, with the models disagreeing in over 90% of races. AI Weekly

Google and Voltus expand PJM virtual power plant beyond 1 GW — Google and Voltus said they would add 1,070 MW to their PJM virtual power plant, taking total capacity above 1 GW. The scheme pays homes and businesses to curtail or shift electricity use when the grid is tight, a model attracting growing hyperscaler interest. The Edge Briefing

BMO CEO warns against giving AI agents your banking information — Bank of Montreal's chief executive urged customers not to hand over banking credentials to third-party AI agents, warning of fraud and security risks as agentic AI tools proliferate. The comments come amid a broader push by banks to set guardrails for consumer-facing AI products. CBC News

Canadian government sites offline after flaw identified in widely used computer language — Several Canadian federal government websites went offline after a vulnerability was disclosed in a widely used programming language. The outage joins a cluster of recent AI-discovered flaws affecting PHP, Node.js, Plex, LiteLLM and Railway that cybersecurity experts expect to keep triggering global disruptions. CBC News

Germany signs AI partnership with Nvidia for industrial 'physical AI' — Germany's federal government signed a Joint Declaration of Intent with Nvidia to advance cutting-edge AI models for industrial physical AI. The agreement was concluded at the Invest in Germany Summit as Berlin positions itself as a European hub for manufacturing-focused AI. AI News

Renewable Energy

UK unveils £2bn green transition fund linked to oil and gas revenue — The UK government launched a new energy wealth fund with a £2 billion down payment to reinvest oil and gas revenues in renewable and low-carbon projects. The announcement accompanied approval of the Jackdaw gas field and comes as ministers weigh a controversial decision on the Rosebank oil project. Renewables Now

UK Energy Secretary says government will decide shortly on Rosebank oilfield — Energy Secretary Fahnbulleh said the government will rule "shortly" on the contested Rosebank oil project, with reports suggesting she is leaning towards rejection. Equinor and partners have threatened to pull UK investment if the field is not approved alongside Jackdaw. Newsquawk

Wind and solar meet a record 41% of UK electricity demand in 2026 — Carbon Brief analysis shows wind and solar have supplied a record 41% of British electricity demand so far this year. The milestone comes even as Octopus Energy says wind-related grid constraint costs have passed £1.5 billion in 2026, highlighting the urgent need for new transmission capacity. Carbon Brief

China's CO2 emissions have now been 'flat or falling' for 21 months — China's CO2 emissions have been stable or declining for seven consecutive quarters, the first such streak on record that is not tied to a slowdown in energy demand. Record wind and solar additions at the end of 2025 are expected to show up as even higher clean-power generation through 2026. Carbon Brief

UNEP: Opportunity 'has been lost' to meet 1.5C limit without overshoot — The UN Environment Programme says a temporary breach of the 1.5°C warming limit is now inevitable after "decades of insufficient climate action." Under current policies, warming could reach 2.8°C within this century; the lowest-overshoot scenario still peaks around 1.7–1.8°C mid-century. Carbon Brief / UNEP

Germany adds 8.2 GWh of battery storage capacity in first nine months of 2026 — Germany has installed over 500,000 new battery storage systems with roughly 8.2 GWh of combined capacity through September, according to BSW-Solar. The surge underscores Europe's shift toward distributed storage to pair with rapidly expanding solar fleets. Renewables Now

Norway grants first new onshore wind licence in nine years — Norway has issued its first new onshore wind farm licence in nine years, awarded to Eviny and Norsk Vind. The decision signals a cautious reopening of Norway's onshore wind pipeline after years of planning freezes driven by local opposition. Renewables Now

Global South spends more than $235bn on Chinese clean-energy technologies — Countries across the Global South have spent more than $235 billion on Chinese-made clean-energy technologies since 2024, according to Reuters analysis. The spending underscores Beijing's dominance of global solar, battery and EV supply chains as emerging economies accelerate deployment. SustainabilityOnline / Reuters

Carbon capture capacity to pass 100 MtCO2/year but constraints remain — Operating carbon capture capacity is projected to rise 82% to above 100 million tonnes of CO2 per year once projects under construction come online, a new report says. However, policy and financing remain key bottlenecks limiting faster deployment. Carbon Pulse

Soil Science

FAO Food Price Index hits highest level since November 2022 on supply shocks — The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September 2026, its highest reading since late 2022, driven by surging sugar, cereal and vegetable oil prices. FAO chief economist Maximo Torero cited Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz disruptions combining with climate shocks across North America, India and Brazil. Reuters via The Pig Site

FAO forecasts 2026 global cereal production will fall 2.1% — FAO expects 2026 global cereal production to fall 2.1% from 2025 to 2,979 million tonnes, with world cereal trade projected to decline 3.5% to 505.8 million tonnes. Wheat and maize exports face constraints from Black Sea shipping disruptions and limited alternative transport capacity. QZ / FAO

FPMA Bulletin: Domestic staple food prices under pressure from conflict and weather — FAO's October Food Price Monitoring and Analysis Bulletin reports that global cereal prices rose in September amid tighter supplies, trade disruptions and weather concerns. Domestic staple food prices also faced upward pressure from conflicts, high fuel costs, currency depreciation and adverse weather in vulnerable regions. FAO

Soil health is the missing metric in climate-smart agriculture monitoring — A new review argues that the absence of systematic soil health monitoring is a critical measurement gap in climate-smart agriculture (CSA) assessment. The authors call for outcome-based monitoring, positioning soil health as an integrating metric that aligns climate, land degradation and biodiversity agendas. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems

Tropical conservation agriculture redefines soil health and food security — A systematic review of 474 peer-reviewed studies finds Brazil leads global tropical conservation-agriculture research, accounting for 40% of output. The analysis shows science-based conservation agriculture can strengthen soil health and food security, but only 17% of studies integrated chemical, physical and biological soil indicators. Communications Sustainability (Nature)

Modern sensing and AI are pivotal to scalable soil-health assessment — A new review in the journal SOIL argues that remote sensing, machine learning and AI are now "the only feasible means" of generating rapid, affordable and scalable soil-health information across diverse ecosystems. The authors note there is still no universally accepted framework for soil-health assessment outside agriculture. SOIL (Copernicus)

Advancing soil health across Europe conference opens in Brussels — The Forum for the Future of Agriculture is convening a major Brussels conference on 28 October on business models, incentives and policy pathways for soil health across Europe. Sessions will examine CAP reform, financing instruments and how to scale regenerative practices across member states. Forum for the Future of Agriculture

From soil knowledge to soil health solutions – EU conference 28–29 October — The EU's "From soil knowledge to soil health solutions" conference opens next week in Brussels, bringing together EU-funded projects, policymakers and farmers. The programme includes a policy workshop, project results marketplace and networking to accelerate uptake of soil-health innovations under the EU Soil Strategy. European Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform

Cover photo by Çağlar Oskay on Unsplash.